As Labour are floundering and the SNP won a by-election here last year, the SNP seem likely favourites. A win would give them every councillor in the ward, and potentially flip the administration; real oddities of by-elections under STV.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
By-Election Result: Caol and Mallaig (2025)
A ward that didn’t even get to vote in 2022 finally has a say over its current crop of councillors, picking a new Independent over one that had previously had a go.
By-Election Result: Tain and Easter Ross (2025)
A comfortable Lib Dem victory in an area they’re on the hunt for a Holyrood win bodes well for them, whilst Reform fully cannibalise the Conservatives.
Poll Analysis: Survation 4th – 16th of September 2025
Labour’s diabolically bad polling pairs with further modest SNP recovery to keep the current Government in place, despite still losing a huge chunk of support compared to 2021, whilst Reform slip a little compared to the previous dramatic Survation.
By-Election Preview: Ayr North (South Ayrshire) 16th of October 2025
Easily the least Conservative part of a traditionally Conservative town is instead likely to come down to an SNP vs Labour scrap, slight advantage possibly to the SNP.
Poll Analysis: More in Common 21st of August – 1st of September 2025
Why is it that begging for non-Norstat/Survation polls means getting wild ones instead? In their first ever Holyrood outing, More in Common find an eye-poppingly high Lib Dem share and yet more misery for Labour.
SP26: West Scotland Region Preview
Don’t let the SNP vs Labour contest in much of this region fool you, there’s an important Conservative contest and a cornerstone of any Lib Dem revival to watch here too.
SP26: South Scotland Region Preview
A formerly largely rural region adds some Glasgow commuter belt seats which tweaks 2021 in the Greens’ favour. A big question here will be whether the Conservatives can keep the border seats solidly blue.
SP26: A Tale of Two Civil Wars
A summer of strife concludes with the Greens in a happier position than they might have expected, whilst the Conservatives plumb new depths of misery.
By-Election Preview: Caol and Mallaig (Highland) 25th of September 2025
A ward that went uncontested in 2022 finally gets to have a vote, with an Independent always the favoured option in the Highlands but lack of data means I’m unwilling to write off the Lib Dems.