Why is it that begging for non-Norstat/Survation polls means getting wild ones instead? In their first ever Holyrood outing, More in Common find an eye-poppingly high Lib Dem share and yet more misery for Labour.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
SP26: West Scotland Region Preview
Don’t let the SNP vs Labour contest in much of this region fool you, there’s an important Conservative contest and a cornerstone of any Lib Dem revival to watch here too.
SP26: South Scotland Region Preview
A formerly largely rural region adds some Glasgow commuter belt seats which tweaks 2021 in the Greens’ favour. A big question here will be whether the Conservatives can keep the border seats solidly blue.
SP26: A Tale of Two Civil Wars
A summer of strife concludes with the Greens in a happier position than they might have expected, whilst the Conservatives plumb new depths of misery.
By-Election Preview: Caol and Mallaig (Highland) 25th of September 2025
A ward that went uncontested in 2022 finally gets to have a vote, with an Independent always the favoured option in the Highlands but lack of data means I’m unwilling to write off the Lib Dems.
SP26: North East Scotland Region Preview
The SNP are at risk of ruining proportionality in the North East, which could really scupper Labour, the Greens and Lib Dems, as well as somewhat deflating Reform in their best region.
By-Election Preview: Tain and Easter Ross (Highland) 25th of September 2025
A third by-election in the same ward this term means 100% turnover in the councillors elected in 2022, and may lead to 100% Independent representation.
By-Election Result: Barrhead, Liboside and Uplawmoor
A surprisingly strong win for Labour leaves more questions than answers: is this picking up a re-recovery polling hasn’t yet, or was it local circumstances?
SP26: Mid Scotland and Fife Region Preview
In 2021 the SNP were threatened in Perthshire by the Conservatives, but this time it’s Labour in South Fife who may be able to pick up some constituencies, whilst both the Greens and Lib Dems are angling for two MSPs.
SP26: Highlands and Islands Region Preview
If the SNP are currently at risk of warping proportionality in much of Scotland, in the Lib Dems’ preferred scenario they are the ones doing so in Highlands and Islands.